CME ScoreBoard Header

CCMC CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2025-09-11T08:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-09-11T08:53Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/41157/-1
CME Note: Narrow CME seen to the SE in STEREO A COR2 closely following the fainter CME: 2025-09-11T07:53Z. It is seen as a faint, asymmetrical and complex-shaped partial halo to the SSE in SOHO LASCO C2. Its source is likely the complex gradual eruption of a southern filament mostly seen in SDO AIA 193 as a faint dimming and ejecta and lasting/developing for hours. The filament seems to be centered very approximately around S40E05 but the filament stretches (mostly along latitude) at least from S40E45 to S30W05. There is also a more western, fainter, feature of this CME seen to the west in SOHO LASCO C2 but it is hard to fit into an analysis. There are also potential additional one or two follow-up fronts in coronagraphs following this CME.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-09-16T06:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 50912
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 12 Sep 2025, 1256UT
SIDC FORECAST
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 12 Sep 2025  10CM FLUX: 114 / AP: 008
PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Sep 2025  10CM FLUX: 112 / AP: 017
PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Sep 2025  10CM FLUX: 111 / AP: 023

Coronal mass ejections: A faint coronal mass ejection (CME) was first
observed in the SOHO/LASCO C2 images around 10:30 UTC on Sep 11. It has a
projected width of about 100 deg. This CME is associated to a filament
eruption in the S hemisphere of the Sun. Narrow CMEs related to this
filament eruption were also observed prior to this CME. With the bulk of
the mass strongly directed towards SW, this CME will miss Earth, but a
glancing blow related to this CME may be possible on Sep 15-16.

Lead Time: 61.70 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) on 2025-09-13T16:18Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy